They all have their pros and cons..
Go with the larger HP as it will simply last longer due to not working as hard. Plus, if you have an insulated door they can get heavy, especially if it is a 16 foot door.
I have yet to own a belt drive system, I have heard that they are pretty quite.
Screw drive seem to do a decent job with medium noise.
Chain drive have always worked well for me. But,,, I have had the plastic drive gear fail. Two of them in 23 years. Fixed it myself for about $15.00...