Top 10 Most Stolen Vehicles of 2004

[Keith McElroy]

The percentages were based on number reported stolen versus number nationally registered, so the percentages were based per model, not on overall count. I agree, if it was only by count, there would be a ton of Camrys, etc. throwing off the accuracy.

 

[Travis Munday]

Nelson...there is a HUGE difference between a "ricer" and a tuner....

 

[Thomas Rogers]

From the article:

The large number of Honda Civics on the road probably accounts for its appearance at the top of a list like this, said Chris Naughton, a spokesman for Honda.



Popularity and longevity have a lot to do with a vehicle's popularity as a theft target, agreed Frank Scafidi, a spokesman for the NICB. Not only are there more vehicles available to steal, but as vehicles get older they require parts more frequently, creating demand for parts taken from stolen cars.

That quote leads me to believe that the ranking is based on total number stolen per make and model, and not percentage of those stolen vs owned in that make/model.



Regardless, the article doesn't state what the ranking is based on. Anyone have a source?



TJR

 

[Thomas Rogers]

I found a source, see quote and link below:

The 2004 stolen vehicle report from CCC Information Services Inc. is based on the rate of theft for a vehicle as a percentage of the total number of that vehicle registered. CCC analyzes total loss claims received from more than 350 property and casualty insurers in North America and compares the number of vehicles stolen and not recovered against vehicle registration volume information provided by R.L. Polk & Co., to determine the rate of theft.



CCC changed the method of determining the most stolen vehicles for last year's study, basing the report on the theft rate rather than the number of thefts, which had skewed the report toward the most popular models. CCC is a technology provider to the automotive claims and repair industry.



CCC does not include vehicles stolen for joyrides or otherwise recovered and returned to their owners, but only vehicles stolen and deemed a total loss, or never recovered. A vehicle is considered a total loss when the cost to repair it approaches or exceeds the value of the vehicle.

So, from my last post, it seems like Chris Naughton of Honda may be assuming things. He may be right, be he still may be assuming things.



I would like to see the same ranking according to total numbers. I wonder how much, if at all it would change?



TJR

 

[Tom Schindler]

TJR,



Percentages...go figure. Honestly, that is the only real comparison on theft rates. Just because Ford sells the number 1 SUV of all time does not mean it is the most widely stolen. To get a real grasp of the theft popularity, percentages are more accurate.





Tom

 

[Thomas Rogers]

Okay, percentages.



Anyone have the 2002 numbers?



Oh, wait, I do (the Internet is GRAND)...



Here are the 2003 (same percentage ranking basis), followed by the 2002 (total number basis):

Top 10 stolen vehicles in 2003:



2000 Honda Civic

1989 Toyota Camry

1991 Honda Accord

1994 Chevrolet Full Size

C/K 1500 Pickup

1994 Dodge Caravan

1997 Ford F150 Series

1986 Toyota Pickup

1995 Acura Integra

1987 Nissan Sentra

1986 Oldsmobile Cutlass





Top 10 stolen vehicles in 2002 :

Toyota Camry (1989)

Honda Accord (1994)

Honda Civic (2000)

Chevrolet Full Size C/K Pickup (1992)

Ford Full Size Pickup (150/250/350) (1997)

Jeep Cherokee/Grand Cherokee (1993)

Oldsmobile Cutlass /Supreme/Ciera (1986)

Dodge Caravan/Grand Caravan (1994)

Ford Taurus (1996)

Toyota Corolla (2001)

Source: National Insurance Crime Bureau

Not a big difference. Older (and some newer) Jap imports still at the top.



TJR

 

[Travis Munday]

Even when going by percentages, simple statistical common sense tells you that the more units of a model, the higher the percentage of factor X happening to it. If X is thefts, breakdowns, repairs, accidents, etc, it doesn't matter. So, by logical thought, the models with the most units would show up on the list, even by percentages.

 

[Bill V]

TJR, actually, from those posts of yours, I think what Chris Naughton is saying is that when there are a lot of a model built, and they last a long time, the demand for the spare parts is going to go up, and thus drive theft rates higher, even from a percentage basis. Yugo, for example, isn't on the list, even on a percentage basis, because the low sales quantities and the fact that most have rusted themselves off the road means no parts demand.



I wonder how much the quality of the standard factory locks/theft deterents plays into this? Probably not much, but you never know...

 

[Thomas Rogers]

Tiger says:

Even when going by percentages, simple statistical common sense tells you that the more units of a model, the higher the percentage of factor X happening to it. If X is thefts, breakdowns, repairs, accidents, etc, it doesn't matter. So, by logical thought, the models with the most units would show up on the list, even by percentages.

So, Tiger, if I flip a quarter 10,000 times I should get a higher percentage of heads (or tails) than if I flip it only 1,000 times? I don't think so.



Just because I sell more of something doesn't mean that those things are more susceptible to some external event (in this case theft) on a percentage basis. Sure, on a TOTAL NUMBER basis but not a percentage basis.



Percentages are the great equalizer that bring parity to large pools and small pools.



TJR

 

[Thomas Rogers]

Right, Bill V, but by using percentages in this way instead of total numbers, and given that older imports top the list, a set of logical conclusions MIGHT be able to be assumed.



The only one I can think of is:



1) There is a larger "relative" market for stolen spare parts that come from older Japanese imports than there are for older (and newer) domestics.



Do we agree? Why might this be?

 

[Travis Munday]

TJR-

No, flipping a quarter more times doesn't mean your percentage of getting X side will be any higher. A quarter has only two sides, A and B. Each flip the odds (probability) of getting either is 50/50. The odds of you getting your car stolen at any given time is not 50/50. Comparing a 50/50 event to a non 50/50 event isn't a fair comparision. The more times you flip a quarter, the closer you'll come to a 50/50 outcome.

 

[Thomas Rogers]

Okay, Tiger, but my comparison still stands.



What I was trying to say is that when discussing the "percent liklihood" of something happening to a subset of a total you can't assume that increasing the number in the total will increase the "percent liklihood" of occurrence.



Or, put another way...the survey shows that on average SOMETHING is making Hondas more likely to be stolen than Chevy's, and it isn't the total numbers of each make sold because the percentage already takes into account each of the totals.



I could make a CUSTOM car tomorrow. It could be ONE OF A KIND, and it could get stolen the next day. The rate of that car being stolen would be #1...100%. Yet, there is only ONE of them with 100s of thousands of Hondas sold.



TJR

 

[k c]

 

[k c]

With the career I have chosen I get the privelege of looking at the list of stolen vehicle's in my city from each day. The truth is that if it is any Dodge/Plymouth/Chrysler product with the glow ring they are extremely easy to steal. In our city the top ones are Caravans, neons and intrepids. I have watched guys while working surveillence get into one and steal it in less than 30 seconds and most will steal several over the course of a night. They are almost always used in committing other crimes but are very rarely stripped for parts. I live in Canada and we have very little import/export of stolen vehicles except when speaking about high end vehicles. You will see the odd reVIN but I would say my city has about a 90% locate rate for recovering your stolen vehicle.

 

[Cory Richards]

Makes me wonder why the Explorer isn't listed because there's a ton of them.

 

[Tom Schindler]

Corry,



The top selling SUV ever is the Explorer. Not on the list. More Explorer's then any other SUV out there.



Go figure. Maybe the PATS keys are working or there isn't a big demand for parts.





Tom

 

[Jake Levin]

the purpose of the list is to give the insurance companies leverage when pricing out insurance on your car. You have a car that is classified as "high theft rate" and your rates go up.



Personally I think they should look at WHERE these vehicles are being stolen from as a factor. Could it be that the vehicles listed are also more commonly located in a high crime area?

 

[Tom Schindler]

Truc Trac,



Things like wheels, engines, tranny's, and body panels are expensive. After 10 years, the manufacturer quits supporting those vehicles. Once you get to that point, many parts are not made by any aftermarket manufacturer, therefore, a junk yard is the only place. Since most Junk yards are run by @$$holes, maybe it is cheaper to steal a car then it is to buy a part you need.



Some vehicles, like my Escort GT parts at the yards are cheap. There were a whole bunch of them made and the bodies are first to give out. You can buy a cmplete engine from a yard for $200.00. Cars that tend to have engine problems the engines are more expensive.





Tom