Have manufacturing jobs have vanished to China, Mexico and South Korea?

[Richard L]

U.S. manufacturing would rank today as the sixth largest economy in the world, just behind France and ahead of the United Kingdom, Italy and Brazil.

Not sure where you are reading in the article that the US is number 1?

it seems like you're trying to poke holes in the GDP measurement of an economy's "power". Now I can't resist the juvenile urge to use your own argument here, so I'll give in to pettiness and ask: Your questions about the computation seem pretty basic, so wouldn't the great economists and bankers who created the GDP measurement system, have already designed the measurement to compensate for them?

That's the issue...The exact formula to calculate the GDP is controled by those who stand to gain the most if they can make it look better. In the past 40 years I would guess that the exact formual for figuring the GDP has changed 3 or 4 times...some chages were for better accuracy, and some because of economic changes, but some are done for political reasons.



I am skeptical of a lot of the governmental statistics and always take them with a grain of salt. Statistics and graphs are wonderful, but can easily be manipulated and subject to interpretation and political spins. The old saying applies: "Figures don't lie, but Liars can figure"



Things that were not explained in the article are what make me skeptical even though I agree that US manufacturing has improved. Things like: What was our world ranking in 1970? I don't know, but I'm pretty sure it was higher than 6th place? So if we are going to show improvement on a world wide scale, don't just talk about US manufacturing $$$ and not the other country's manufacturing $$$ in 1970 vs today. If we had a higher ranking in 1970, and we have fallen to 6th, how have we improved? We would have had to have fallen to an even lower rank to move up 6th as an improvement. And certainly the other countries who are in 1st-5th place managed to do much better than the US over the past 40 years.



Perhaps if they article show the rankings of the top 10 countries every 5-10 years for the past 40 years, and it would make the journey a little more obvious as to where we started, where we went and how we ended up in 6th place.



...Rich

 

[Kevin Lang]

Not sure where you are reading in the article that the US is number 1?

Richard L, take a look at the second sentence of the article. It reads:

Yet the empirical evidence tells a different storyof a thriving and growing U.S. manufacturing sector, and a country that remains by far the world's largest manufacturer.

(Emphasis added)

That country is, of course, the United States. Unless you want to read ambiguity into the used adjective, that sentence says that the US is still the #1 manufacturer.

If we had a higher ranking in 1970, and we have fallen to 6th, how have we improved?

Good thing this is just a hypothetical question, as we are not #6 in the world. The article says that we're still #1, and it certainly never says that we're number 6 in the world. I believe you may be misinterpreting what the article is saying in what looks to be its seventh sentence. Said sentence quoted below:

Taken on its own, U.S. manufacturing would rank today as the sixth largest economy in the world, just behind France and ahead of the United Kingdom, Italy and Brazil.

This does not say that the USA is #6 in the world in manufacturing.



Google searching for "number one manufacturing country in the world" yields sites which list the USA as a unanimous result. Interestingly one of the first-page results is a transcript of a Rush Limbaugh show where he references this very article.

 

[Richard L]

KL,

Taken on its own, U.S. manufacturing would rank today as the sixth largest economy in the world, just behind France and ahead of the United Kingdom, Italy and Brazil.

After rereading the article several times, I realized that in the above statement he was comparing the US manufacturing $$$ to the entire Economies of the countries of France, UK, Italy, and Brazil. Thus US manufacturing $$$ alone would be the 6th largest economy in the world. Obviously he could have worded that better.



I agree. that he says the Empirical evidence shows the US is the largest manufacturer in the world...but is skimpy on presenting much of that Empirical evidence.



My confusion was based on the statement about the US manufacturing would rank as the 6th largest ECONOMY in the world. I knew we had to be better than 6th in manufacturing!



Thanks for pointing out my confusion...:haveabeer:



PS: I would still like to know who number 2, 3, 4, and 5 where...:grin:



...Rich

 

[Kevin Lang]

In comparing economy GDP to economy GDP, the internet claims that the 2,3,4,5 are:

China

Japan

Germany

Russian "Federation"

 

[Richard L]

KL,

Thanks. Wonder why that could not have been included in the article...and they are the countries that I expected to be there.



...Rich

 

[H D]

There is no reason we should not absolutely dominate when a country like Japan with very little resources can make the top 3. I mean, with our resources, education (capacity not actuality), manpower, and our head start, we should be leaps and bounds ahead of the next closest country.

 

[Kevin Lang]

I mean, with our resources, education (capacity not actuality), manpower, and our head start, we should be leaps and bounds ahead of the next closest country.

I agree.



Though your quote could easily be said by the Chinese. Maybe "head start" would have to be expanded to "Disregard for environmental regulations, government subsidies, trade disparity, and purloined US & other foreign technologies".



I'd also put in "US-obtained" in front of "education".



That done, they could use it too. They're also a more vast nation than the USA. :cry:



Though I hear that the Chinese workers are steadily earning more, and eventually the Chinese will have huge labor costs. The USA will be ahead of them as we're implementing automation and robotics now. I'd like to think that China will go down in the flames of its own myopia on this subject. Robotics don't spring up overnight, and to whom would the Chinese be able to outsource? :grin:



Only our own internal policies can knock us out of #1...:boohoo:

 

[Tom Schindler]

And, if the Feds succeed it will be just another reason for Boeing to look at offshored manufacturing.

If Boeing wants to build Military products, they can't. Neither can a company operate out of a tax haven. No government contracts if you operate out of a tax haven.





Tom

 

[Thomas Rogers]

Hugh said:

There is no reason we should not absolutely dominate when a country like Japan with very little resources can make the top 3. I mean, with our resources, education (capacity not actuality), manpower, and our head start, we should be leaps and bounds ahead of the next closest country.

I too have to scratch my head in wonderment as to why we aren't doing better in the global economy.



In many ways I think it is complacency. We had it so good, for so long, we have lost the eye of the tiger.



We can get it back. We must first admit we lost it. Like most anything else, in order to get better you must first admit you have a problem.



Cue the Rocky music...



TJR

 

[Richard L]

TJR,

In many ways I think it is complacency. We had it so good, for so long, we have lost the eye of the tiger.

Yes, we need more of Charlie Sheen's tiger blood...:bwahaha: Just joking



I agree that the US has gotten complacent with things like dominating the car market for so many years and assuming they could never get knocked off their throne. Suddenly, the foreign auto makers started making better quality cars, the US auto makers started losing their market share....and the US auto makers have been playing catch-up ever since. That certainly did not mean we did not have the manufacturing capacity or ability to make better more desirable cars. It was very poor decisions made by the exectutives at the US auto companies. I think now that they US automakers nearly had their backs broken, hopefully they will be smarter now and never underestimate their competitors.



I think that our quality of manufacturing has improved, but so have other countries, but our labor cost are higher than many of the other countries. Where we have been able to reduce our manufacturing labor cost, we can sell our products. It is just going to take a long time to transition to more automation. I think the unions have played a major role in delaying this transistion. But we also have to be able to provide jobs to a lot of displaced workers who's jobs have been eliminated. Germany has a higher labor cost than the US, but the specialize in very precise, high quality manufacturing, and can demand the consumer pay the higher price. I have heard, and agree with the statement that "Quality never goes out of style". The US just needs to find it's market and be the very best in the world...and people will buy it.



I'm also saying that the US workforce has to be more flexible and able to see the direction of the future jobs and be willing to make the necessary changes to keep up with the changing world...It's not going to get easier, if anything it will get harder and things will change faster. Employer or union backed retirements pensions cannot be relied on in the long run. You need to be able to move or change directions when things stagnate at your old job.



...Rich

 

[Thomas Rogers]

Rich,



For the most part, many consumers are willing to pay a premium price for a premium product or service. But they are not willing to do so for a commodity product, one that isn't really that much different than another.



Quality means different things to different people.



I was changing the oil on my wife's Chrysler Pacifica the other day. I was getting all the supplied at WalMart. I paid a buck extra for the Mopar filter. The reason...it felt "heavier" than the Fram, etc, comparable filters. To me, a heavier oil filter means better quality. Do I know that for a fact? Nope.



Quality is therefore very subjective. It takes decades for a country, or a company to gain a reputation for quality in the goods or services they provide. However, for a single consumer, it only takes a moment for that reputation to be lost.



TJR

 

[Richard L]

TJR,

I understand what you mean by quality being subjective, and that people do not want to pay extra for a comodity item when there is little or no difference in the quality.



I also think we have grown accustomed to a "Disposable/Throw away economy so we don't to spend extra money for something that is not going to last, or will be obsolete in a few years anyway.



That is why I am stubborn about paying so much money for a cell phone when it will be obsolete or worn out by the time the contract runs out. Since most cell phones come with a 1 year warranty, I might as well upgrade when the contract ends and get a new cell phone with a new warranty.



So if someone manufactures a better quality item, then the quality must be recognizable by the public. Sometimes it requires years of evidence, while in some cases your product can be such a leap forward, that people immediately recognize the performance and quality it has



I think the iPod and iPhone fall into that relm because they provided the features that most people wanted in an mp3 player or cell phone dispite some serious issues with the iPhone.





...Rich

 

[Thomas Rogers]

Rich,



Funny you mentioned cell phones then the iPhone.



I just paid $200 and extended another 2 year contract with Verizon so my wife could get her first iPhone. She had smartphones before, but never used them for anything other than as, well funny as it sounds, as a phone.



Within 2 days of having the iphone she has synced it with several email/calendar accounts, setup facebook, installed several helpful apps (RedLaser, AroundMe, a turn-by-turn GPS, etc), and done it all herself. Essentially she is using the power of the smart phone...for the first time.



The reason: Apple makes it easy and fun.



Well worth the $200.



TJR

 

[Richard L]

TJR,

Years I rejected the new smartphone technology and I would have never bought one for my self since my only purpose for a cell phone was to make phone calls.



When the company I worked for gave me a free Blackberry I was not originally impressed, but as time passed and I started to use more features because it made my job easier, I was hooked. So now I get emails from two accounts as well as messages from my MagicJack are forwared to my cell phone.



I'm still not a big fan of iPhones, but admit that that Blackberry is a great phone. For about a month I had a Samsung Calibre Touch screen phone. The phone worked fine, but the service from MetroPCS was terrible. I switch back to AT&T and got a new Blackberry Bold 9700 and I am very happy with it.



...Rich

 

[Johnny O]

Though I hear that the Chinese workers are steadily earning more, and eventually the Chinese will have huge labor costs. The USA will be ahead of them as we're implementing automation and robotics now. I'd like to think that China will go down in the flames of its own myopia on this subject. Robotics don't spring up overnight, and to whom would the Chinese be able to outsource? :grin:

Just like Japan started outsourcing to S. Korea 20 years ago and everybody is using China.



China MAKES a lot of stuff but they are not very good at INVENTING things. I think it's partly cultural and mostly the fact that although in some respects they are more capitalistic than we are, they will never be able to let go of centralized government control of everything and eventually they will hit a wall.

 

[Richard L]

JohnnyO,

China MAKES a lot of stuff but they are not very good at INVENTING things. I think it's partly cultural and mostly the fact that although in some respects they are more capitalistic than we are, they will never be able to let go of centralized government control of everything and eventually they will hit a wall.

Very true statement...but also remember that Japan after WWII only made cheap junk and the words "Made in Japan" was a joke. Their first step to economic recovery was to copy and make cheaper knockoffs of items made in other countries. Step two was to improve the quality of the items they made, and then make their brand better than their competitors at a lower price. That's when Japan got into the Camera and Consumer Electronics industry, dominated those industries, and nothing has been the same since.



I think China may be on the same path as Japan and S. Korea took. Right now they are emphasizing QUANTITY and LOWER COSTS over QUALITY, but I suspect that things will change. How fast depends on the Chinese Government...But I don't think we should ever assume the Chinese will simply hit a wall and give up. The Japanese and S. Koreans broke through their barriers, and I suspect the Chinese will too and we should not sit back and do nothing until it's too late.



...Rich