Jobs that are projected to loose the most by 2018

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OK, while it's true that USPS may not be funded by tax dollars, USPS employees may not be considered true "gov't/civil service" employees, and USPS may be considered an "independent agency" of the Federal gov't, but make no mistake about it, it is indeed run by the Federal gov't, in this case Congress (see the aforementioned Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution).



Otherwise, as I asked earlier:



If USPS is a "civilian business", then why does the Postmaster General need to ask for Congressional permission to eliminate Saturday delivery to avoid possibly losing $7 billion this year?



Why can't he just make that decision on his own, if he's in effect, the "CEO" of this "civilian business"?



For that matter, if this "civilian business" is performing so poorly, why not just let it go under? There are plenty of competitors in the same market that can provide the exact same services, often more efficiently and at less cost to the consumer.



USPS's market competitors have autonomy in a free market to make whatever adjustments/changes necessary to remain competitive and profitable in the marketplace, or go out of business. USPS can't do the same, continues to bleed money, and Congress damn sure ain't going to let it go out of business.



And the URL's www.usps.com and www.usps.gov both point to the USPS web site. So do www.usajobs.com and www.usajobs.gov. All that proves is that USPS owns both domain names.
 
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:back2topic: (sort of)



Finally back to TrainTrac's point, which was more about the autonomy, unsubsidized, live or die on their own nature of the USPS competitors. I was afraid that might be lost.



TJR
 
:back2topic:

Actually, the topic was about jobs being lost by 2018--not about the autonomy of the USPS at all... :banana:
 
Bill,



Or should I call you Pot, or Kettle. You can't say going back to topic and then put in post about how I didn't actually get us back on topic.



:btddhorse:



TJR
 
Actually, the topic was about jobs being lost by 2018--not about the autonomy of the USPS at all...



Ok, I'll bring us :back2topic:



I said earlier:



Of course, items 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 10 share another common denominator that has probably had a significant impact on their job losses... However, my asbestos suit is in the cleaners, so I won't bring it up right now.



Flame away... er, discuss...:haveabeer:
 
Now, when the OP said "Postal Service", did it specifically mean USPS, or did it include UPS/FedEx/DHL (the latter is all but dead, but I'll include it anyhow...it survives by being able to mail to unfriendly nations of the USA, which I find a bit sketchy)



I'd assume it means USPS exclusively from the phrasing, but the list is for Industries, and USPS can't be alone in the "postal industry" if, as was said many times, UPS and its ilk provide "competing services".



So we know why USPS will loose jobs, it's bankrupt. Why would UPS/FedEx loose a significant number of jobs? They have a bit of a captive market, people need to ship goods. Sure, some can be digitized and sent over the internet, and online shoppers can curtail their sprees, but does that really amount to enough to warrant significant job losses over the next 8 years?



 
DHL is actually the Deutsche Post.



USPS would be hurting simply because nobody mails letters to anyone. Now with "paperless" billing, the USPS is jus left with the "super saver" ads.



We can think companies like UPS and FedEx would be a better option that the USPS is, but the fact remains, the USPS will ship a letter for much less than UPS or FedEx can.



The USPS is still one of the cheapest and most reliable in the world.





Tom



 
KL, I took it to mean specifically the USPS, as that (far more than the others you listed) is more traditionally in the business of transporting information (letters, bills, etc.), which can now be done primarily electronically. The others you listed are primarily in the business of transporting objects--which, until Scotty gets the transporter functioning properly, won't be replaced electronically.
 
With the exception of shipping packages, 100% of what the post office (USPS) does can be done electronicly, however there are still a lot of people who do not have or cannot afford computers. That disinfranchises way too many Americans, particularly the poor and elderly.



One of the problems that the USPS has is they are catering too much to businesses by giving huge discounts on postage if the items are sorted a certain way. Also think about all that Bulk rate junk mail you get. I suggest we jack the prices up by a factor of 10 and see if that does not reduce the workload on the post office, and our trash collectors, etc.



The simple fact is that the Postal service must continue to exist but needs to be modernized, streamlined and that will require significant hikes in our postal rates. I certainly think that a $1.00 stamp for a first class letter would be excessive for most people, and a Senior's discount stamp would make the stamps cheaper for those on Social Security regardless of age.



I think some smart guy could develope a small economical PC for communications that would be easy for most seniors to learn to use and allow them to take advantage of free bill paying services at their banks, or at the variouls financial instututes and utility companies so that bills can be easily paid online for senior citizens or handicapped people and not charge them extra fees or require postage.



And it really does not matter if the USPS is or is not an entity of the US Government. It was taken out of the hands of the government because it was not profitable, and even though the government still has some control over the postal service, it continues to wallow in red ink. Nothing has changed or will change unless someone in Washington starts to think very differently about how we are going to solve all of these issues without going broke. Lord knows the Politicians can't or won't do it !!



...Rich
 
The simple fact is that the Postal service must continue to exist but needs to be modernized, streamlined and that will require significant hikes in our postal rates.



There is a show called "Really Big Things". Rest assured, the USPS is VERY modernized.



The prices are too low for the service we get. The postage rates need to go up.





Tom
 
I think some smart guy could develope a small economical PC for communications that would be easy for most seniors to learn to use and allow them to take advantage of free bill paying services at their banks, or at the variouls financial instututes and utility companies so that bills can be easily paid online for senior citizens or handicapped people and not charge them extra fees or require postage.

A number of "smart guys" have attempted just that--and have pretty universally failed. Remember "WebTV"? A small keyboard driven device that allows you to access e-mail and some minimal web content through your primary TV? Bombed, primarily because either people had enough high interest/aptitude that such a system wasn't enough, or they had low enough interest/aptitude that it was a waste of time. IMHO, for most people who are currently 50+, computing is something they either do full-bore, or don't do at all. There really isn't much of a market for "computing lite".
 
Bill V is correct, I think.



Many seniors have absolutely no desire to work with anything cutting edge, or technical.



The good news is that in another 20 years they will all be pretty much gone....just as PCs do (have) become pretty easy to use and keep running (and disposable when that they no longer work, or work well).



TJR
 
Bill V and TJR,

Yes, I agree that many seniors will not touch any kind of technology. I also know a lot of people who are 20 years away from being termed a "Senior" and they won't touch technology.



If you make something simple enough it can be done. The current computers require some basic knowledge of the technology and therefore is not completely user friendly. We need a computer that is as easy to use as a toaster. Even a Car is complicated but fairly easy for nearly everyone to use, even senior. The only problem with senior drivers is hearing, eyesight that create safety issues. That should not be an issue with a computer.



I suspect that the device would have to be issued to postal customers by the post office. Each device would be restricted to the postal network and would require names, identification and verification of addresses. In the end, the device would only communicate with the local postal server and could be protected by a VPN. People could send emails to anyone, and anyone could send them an email, but they email address of the sender must be registered with the postal service. This would be to eliminate or reduce spam and other phishing emails. Also, since you would need to pay a small fee to send email via the secure postal email service, you would be less likely to want to spend money to send spam.



The device would have a very simple GUI interface and would not be complicated because it has a very limited range of functions. It would not be a full blown computer and would not have the ability to load software or viruses. It would have limited webbrowsing capabilities and would not allow for direct downloads. Downloads would go through the Postal servers security and forwarded to your email as an attachment. Only text, images or pdf files would be downloaded...No executable files. It would only sends and receives emails from a specified list of known people or companies that the postal customer does business with who must also be registered and verified with the postal service.



I'm sure there will be a lot of people here who will say that this can't work, or that won't work, etc. but it's only a very siimplistic idea and surely not fully fleshed out. I have only givine this idea just a few minutes of thought in the the broadest and most generalist sense. But all good ideas start somewhere and most will require a lot more refinement to come up with the final solution that works best.



I invented the LeverLift and continued to refine it and improve it over a period of several years until I came up with the final design that was a simple and trouble-free design.

That's probably the way any product is designed and developed...by constant improvments. until there are no more problems or complaints.



...Rich



















 
Richard L,



There is an old axiom in usability design:



If you make something "idiot proof" then only an idiot will want to use it.



I think there is a bit of that at play.



If you make something "like" a PC that provides very limited functionality, say email and web surfing, and doesn't allow much else, and makes it "brain dead simple" for someone to use (no need to install updates, install new software, configure anything, etc), then I agree that MORE of the tech challenged and tech-phobic will be able to and would use it.



But...



Such simple communcation appliances HAVE been built and sold. They haven't done well in the marketplace. I suspect that market for such an appliance is pretty small, which is why such products haven't sold well. I don't think the product attempts in that space have failed; I simply think the market is small. Maybe they were not marketed well, but I don't think that is the case.



Technology, unfortunately is an insidious beast. Once you open the door to it just a little, it takes over. I think these simple appliances, once adopted by many would be found to be too limiting, once friends and family send email attachments, or direct to websites, etc that aren't supported. Likewise, the first time someone suggests a printer, or a digital camera, or a digital picture frame, or whatever device would be treating this simple PC appliance as some media hub, either logically, physically, or via sneaker-net, the person would once again get frustrated.



The reality is that 5, 6 and 7 year old kids (and younger) can use the technology as-is, quite well, but many 50, 60 and 70 something year-olds cannot. That alone should tell us something moreso about the people than the technology.



P.S. I think the assertion that the USPS is having its lunch eaten by people sending email and doing electronic billing via the PC is somewhat overblow. Yes, fewer people send handwritten letters these days, but many of those that did it 20 years ago are still doing it unless they are dead...mostly because they enjoy it and the people that receive the letters enjoy receiving them. Also, I know many people don't trust electronic billing and electronic bill-pay, or like the ability to play the "its in the mail" game when paying their bills via snail mail.



TJR
 
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Seniors won't use technology because it is too complicated? I think that is far too much of a generalization. I know tons of "seniors" who use, and teach, technology.



Like TJR said, seniors who refuse to learn technology do so because of their own personal traits, not their age and the handicaps that sadly come hand-in-hand with it.



I'd suspect that a person who does not have the ambition to learn to deal with technology as a senior would not have had it before being a senior, and you say that there are people who are 20 years removed from being seniors who will not touch it, confirming this idea.



So the market for your oversimplified computer would not be the large market of "seniors", but the much smaller market of "unambitious seniors", echoing Bill V and TJR.



(Note that by unambitious I mean they lack the ambition to learn to work with technology, not that they lack all ambition, though that is a possibility. I also know seniors who loathe technology, but are still fairly ambitious...though nowhere near as many)
 
TJR,

Such simple communcation appliances HAVE been built and sold. They haven't done well in the marketplace. I suspect that market for such an appliance is pretty small, which is why such products haven't sold well. I don't think the product attempts in that space have failed; I simply think the market is small. Maybe they were not marketed well, but I don't think that is the case.



I agree with what you are saying, however if the Post Office pushed for these email devices, they would be a more viable solution for seniors, handicapped or technology challenged people to get acess to email and postal services without having to buy and update a full computer.



Other small inexpensive email devices that were marketed in the past had one major problem:



The computer and electronic markets are predominantly driven by young people under 30-35 years old. Most devices are design for that age group or even younger. When the small communications devices for email were first introduced most young adults thought they were toys and could get or build a powerfull computer for the same cost, or maybe a little more



Few people had a need or desire for a email-only device then, but if the USPS says that's how you will receive your mail or bills in the future, that creates a viable market with a need in nearly every household in the country.



Instead of the post office delivering packages to your door, you could be notified via email that your package has arrived and you can come and pick it up. How many times have we gotten a notice to pick up a package at the post office, only to go there and find that the package is still on the truck!



If you already have a computer and would prefer to receive your USPS postal email on your computer, there would be software available that would allow you to use your PC as your USPS mail device.



Even if they do deliver the package to your door, they can send and email notifying the sender and recipient that the package was delivered.



Just because a device is not successfull the first time because there was no demand, does not it mean it will not catch on later when somthing stimulates the demand. The biggest excuse to changes and progress has been the people who say, "Oh, we tried that before and it didn't work"...So what, It may have not been the right time to do that, or it was done wrong the first time. Nobody wants to ask, why it didn't work, or can we fix the problems and try again. Too many people have objections to viable changes and many good things have been rejected because people were just opposed to the thought of change.



Cell phones are a good example. They arrived as very expensive toys for the rich. They were big and bulky and require installation in your car, or you carried around a big bag to hold the phone, battery, charger, etc.



Now Cell phones are cheaper nearly microscopic in size and with more features than you can shake a dead cat at. Now it's almost impossible to just get a simple phone service, you have packages and family plans, with texting, email, games, GPS, mapping, MP3 players, cameras and photo albums, schedulers, spreedsheets, calculators, reminders calenders, and the list goes on and on.



Yes, the simple USPS email device might get more features and become more complicated with time, but like the cell phones, the old phones still work as phones without all the email, texting, camera's etc.



People would still be able to send hand written letters but pay the much higher postage rates. And the recipient may have to go to the post office to pickup that hand written letter like a parcel. Any parcel or hard copy mailings would pay a very high postage rate, but the electronic transmitted postal rates could be even cheaper than the current postal rates.



Heck, I see a lot of convenience in a USPS email system. I could check my mail daily or even send mail while on vacation or in my office or Starbucks having a cup of coffee with a laptop PC and never have to stand in line at the post office to get stamps or money orders.



Thats what I mean by streamlining and modernizing the USPS. It's all about thinking outside the box, not being restricted by the current box



...Rich

















 
USPS can never use Email as a carrier of official mail. Email is insecure inherently, and that would wreak havoc with the fact that reading another's mail is a felony.



Also, if the postal service uses email, then that gives the government carte blanche to have oversight over email exploitation of the text of the Constitution. Government oversight of the internet will meet with stalwart opposition, thankfully.



RL, if you want a simple computer that you don't have to do much with, that already exists. It's called a Mac. Unlike PCs, macs can go for years without needing upgrades. They're easy to use, and yet they do not have limited functionality.



People could go buy them right now and learn to do all snail mail correspondence by email, but they do not, and they should not be pressured to do so by the USPS, as you suggest. Steve Jobs might approve, but America would not.



Also, all of your dreams for a future USPS can already be realized if you and all of your correspondents switch over to email. You could then check your mail from Starbucks right now. What do you mean by "could check [your] mail daily"? You mean that you don't check your Snail Mail daily?!



There are providers for printing postage from your home PC even.



It's all about thinking outside the box

<img src="http://jeffreyhill.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341d417153ef01053628c56a970c-800wi">
 
Richard L,



I think you still are barking up the wrong tree.



I simply think that many if not most of today's older folks that don't already have computers will likely NEVER have computers in any form regardless the ease-of-use factor. I think there simply isn't a desire on their part.



The USPS will exist as long as junk mail exists.



TJR
 
Though TJR, when junk snail mail dies off, which could be as soon as the technology-bred generations dominate the workplace/household ownership (say 20 years), what will the Government do?



That pesky "Establish post offices and roads" clause could be abused...who am I kidding? It will be abused, in creative ways only fiendish anti-American lawyers can dream up, probably while working pro bono.
 

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